Nottingham October 6 2021
Flat Racing October 6th 2021
1:55 Nottingham
6f MansionBet Proud To Support British Racing EBF Novice Stakes Class 5 2yo
The first one to catch my eye today is in a novice stakes at Nottingham. I like the look of Miss Calculation. She is carrying a 7lb penalty for winning her maiden but that is partly negated by the 5lb filly’s allowance.
She hacked up in her debut on heavy ground and looked a real mud lark. She won by 2 ¼ lengths going clear in the last half furlong. That was a class 5 Maiden over 6f at Doncaster.
She must have impressed connections as she was put into a group 3 next time where in my opinion the ground was too fast for her. She ran out of energy trying to keep up with the pace in the last furlong.
Next I think she proved that at this stage 7f is really not her cup of tea as she was well beaten and eased up in the final furlong in a class 4 Novice stakes ran on soft. She had a bad start and was held up at the rear and never had the stamina to come past.
Last time out she went on the all-weather over 6f in a class 4 Novice stakes. I’ve watched this race a number of times now. It was interesting that there was a fair amount of kickback but she didn’t seem to care. She raced prominently being held up on the rail behind the leaders. When push came to shove in the final 1 ½ she picked up and started travelling well. She couldn’t catch the first two who streaked off but she finished well and looked like she showed improvement.
This time things look very positive. She is on her preferred 6f on ground she likes in a class she can cope with. As a side note it would be interesting to see her over 5f on slow ground.
Miss Calculation EW 12/1 Bet365 1/5 1-3
5:20 Nottingham
1m2f MansionBet Watch And Bet Apprentice Handicap Div I Class 6 3yo+
0-65)
Le Bayou looks a fantastic EW bet here. The ground and trip should be fine. He has put in some good performances over his career when there has been some cut in the ground.
The gelding lost out in a photo finish last time out at Beverly and has been raised a meagre 1lb for effectively putting in a race winning performance that was just denied.
The excellent claimer Oisin Mcsweeny is on board and claims a very useful 3lb. The 3lb will make the gelding 2lb lower than last time and 1lb lower than his last winning mark. Oisin has been in good form with a 19% win rate over the last 14 days.
Le Bayou EW 5/1 Bet365 1/5 1-3
I really like Grenoble in the 3.05 as he is sure to improve. I decided not to recommend him but he could be one for your notebook. He has a great first run and needs further. Wednesdays trip over 1m ½f is ideal but serious alarm bells ring with the ground. Normally Siyouni progeny hate any cut in the ground and as his dam did not act on the surface he could be worth a swerve. I’m not saying he won’t win but he will be up against it and could be a good one to lay if you agree with the logic and have the facility open to you.