2 For Ayr 7/10/2021

Flat Racing Thursday 7/10/2021

1:00 Ayr

6f Virgin Bet Novice Stakes Class 5 2yo

Beltane should be the answer to this one.

Over 6f at Ayr the softer the ground gets the more important it is to look towards horses that can lead or race prominently.

Beltane has a history of leading races and gets away from the stalls a lot better than most of Thursday’s competition. I’m hoping he can get in to the lead early and make the other horses work to keep up.  He has been dropped back from 7f for this and should have an advantage when they hit the rise about half way down the straight.

I think 6f will suit him better than 7f.  Progeny of Fast Company run just as well on soft as good so he should act on the going and he will appreciate this return to class 5.

At the weights he is 5lb well in on Monsieur Jumbo and has both a higher topspeed and RPR rating.

I don’t think Miss Calculation will turn up as she raced today and put her all into it. If she does she will present a danger to the selection but hopefully the race would come too quick.

Let’s hope the bookies give some type of value as the Racingpost projected price makes him 2nd fav at 2/1.

(Written later in the day)

Beltane has opened up at the comically low price of 5/4 but I’m not deleting loads of words again and it is still a good bet.

Beltane WIN 5/4 Bet365 BOG

3:15 Ayr

6f Virgin Bet Handicap Class 4 3yo+ 0-85

Black Friday will be quite happy to lead or race prominently which will be just the ticket at Ayr over 6f on soft. Prominent horses are harder to peg back the wetter it gets here.

He loves wet ground with 5 of his 6 wins coming on going with some cut in it. Being dropped back in class to 4 will certainly help his chances as he has been racing all the way up to listed over the last four races and won a class 3 6f handicap here in July from a mark of 83.

Andrew Breslin rides and is in decent form.  He claims 5lb which would put Black Friday 2lb below the mark he won the class 3 in July at.

Big Les is a good horse but we can take him on with this one at a good price.

Black Friday EW 12/1 Bet365 1/4 1-3